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Consultancy to develop a Budget Analysis for Namibia Country Office

30 June 2021
Windhoek, Namibia
File tor_for_development_of_budget_analysis_1.docx

TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR CONDUCTING A BUDGET ANALYSIS

 

Title of Assignment

Consultancy to develop a Budget Analysis for Namibia Country Office

Section

SDG Joint Program

AWP Activity

At least 1 national budget analysis report is developed on latest FY

Location

In-Country

Duration

60 working days over a period of 3 months

 

 

Background and Justification

To address the challenges of sustainable development financing, countries will need to develop new, more effective and integrated approaches to managing public and private finance. Under the leadership of the Government of the Republic of Namibia, with the support of United Nations Namibia (UNN), the joint program “Strengthening Namibia’s Financing Architecture for Enhanced Quality & Scale of Financing for SDGs,” will be implemented to create the right conditions and capacities for the alignment of public and private capital to the SDGs and the longer-term enhancement of the quality and scale of financing.

 

The participating UN organizations (PUNOs) (comprised of UNDP, UNICEF, UNFPA and ILO), will support the Government in the operationalization of the Joint Programme through evidence generation, advocacy and policy advice, technical assistance, capacity development, partnerships and systems strengthening. The range of activities will include: Integrated National Financing Frameworks (INFFs); Dialogues, alliances and networks with the Government, development banks, financial sector and investors; Strengthening of capacities of public authorities and the ecosystem that can lead to a pipeline of impact-driven investments; Feasibility studies required to design gender-sensitive innovative solutions and products that can unlock public and private capital for the SDGs.

 

Towards this end, UNN seeks to collaborate with GRN’s implementing counterparts to undertake a detailed analysis of the 2021/22 National Budget on its gender and employment responsiveness, health outcomes, sexual and reproductive health and rights as well as WASH. Findings from the analysis will be packaged in an overarching budget analysis report as well as budget briefs, which will be used as advocacy tools to influence better investments and support efficiency in expenditure in the sectors.These will also offer insights into the adequacy, efficiency, effectiveness and equity of past spending. The main objectives are to synthesize complex budget information so that it is easily understood by stakeholders and to put forth practical recommendations that can inform and make financial decision-making processes better respond to the needs / targets as outlined in relevant national policy frameworks.

 

Within this context, and building on the implementation experience in the region, the budget analysis serves five main purposes:

  • Analyse and monitor budget allocations to sectors that are important for key development objectives in the current fiscal year;
  • Assess the efficiency, effectiveness, equity, and adequacy of past spending to the extent possible;
  • Identify concrete gaps, needs and opportunities towards enhancing budget effectiveness towards financing identified key development objectives
  • Inform advocacy, through key messages for policy and financing changes; and
  • Increase staff knowledge on budget issues that are linked to PFM and social sector results.

 

The budget analysis should focus on an assesment of the past financial year’s budget’s effectiveness with regard to promoting developmental outcomes towards the following key areas:

  • Gender responsiveness (comprehensively integrating gender perspectives at all stages of the budget planning)-(GRB)
  • Employment creation with regards to both the quantity and quality of employment (“pro-employment budgeting”)-(ERB)
  • Budgeting for Health outcomes-(HRB)
  • Sexual Reproductive Health and Rights (SRHR)
  • Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Outcomes (WASH)

 

Objectives and Deliverables and Work Plan

1. Objectives

Developing a Budget Analysis is done in partnership with government based on the approved National Budget for the latest Fiscal Year and a minimum of the two previous years.  A  Budget Analysis includes an analysis of trends as well as key observations and  recommendations to be used as an advocacy and capacity building tool for  improved levels of spending, improved PFM practices and more effective and efficient service delivery for women, children and vulnerable sub-groups. An effective budget analysis involves the combined analysis of budgets and policies from the perspectives outlined above, aiming at establishing a good evidence basis for subsequent activities to improve the budget outcomes in the different sectors, programs and policies. 

 
2 Deliverables
 

The Budget Analysis Team will be required to work on and submit the following deliverables:

  1. Inception report on the assignment which provides an interpretation of the TOR, a proposed methodology and workplan, as well as an annotated outline of the final report
  2. A draft budget analysis report that addresses the required focus areas in gender-responsive detail.
  3. Draft budget briefs, each dedicated to the key focus development areas mentioned above;
  4. A final budget analysis report that includes inputs and feedback by all PUNOs and Namibian partners;
  5. Final budget briefs that include inputs and feedback by the respective lead agency as well as their respective Namibian partners;
  6. An action and advocacy plan that summarises the recommendations of the budget analysis, and sets forth a plan for their implementation and advocacy;
  7. Presentation and raporteuring of respective outputs at a consultative workshop and one validation workshop.

 

Deliverables

Duration

(# of days)

Deadline
  1. Draft inception report for conducting a budget analysis including a detailed Workplan for Stakeholder Engagement (5 pages max)

3

08 July 2021
  1. Undertake data collection and analysis, and develop preliminary findings

10

19 July 2021
  1. Manage appropriate Stakeholder Engagements

5

As arranged
  1. Present a First draft budget analysis, 5 budget briefs, and companion Excel template(s)

25

25 Aug 2021
  1. Present a 2nd draft budget analysis  and briefs(incorporating feedback)

10

03 Sept 2021
  1. Present a budget action and advocacy plan

3

08 Sept 2021
  1. Present the Final Budget Analysis and Briefs Ready for publication

4

30 Sept 2021

 

60

 
 

 

3. Recommended Steps in conducting a Budget Analysis

Step 1: Initiate the process and define the scope 

Step 2: Identify finance laws, policies, strategies/plans and interventions 

Step 3: Map relevant OMAs and budget documents 

Step 4: Collect budget data and other information  

Step 5: Organise and analyse the data, and develop preliminary findings

Step 6: Organise and conduct a consultative workshop to solicit feedback on the preliminary findings

Step 7: Compile the budget analysis, and developing the report and budget briefs 

Step 8: Organise and participate in the validation of the above outputs 

Step 9: Finalise the report, action/advocacy plan, and budget briefs

 

Steps 1-3 are the foundational, preparatory steps to the Budget Analysis . The order in which they are applied is flexible and the steps tend to overlap. If a comprehensive PFM forum  is in place, and stakeholders have an existing working relationship, agreeing on a scope of analysis and setting up management arrangements should be the 1st step. However, if these are not in place, the agency/ies initiating the Budget Analysis may want to begin by mapping OMAs budget, planning and policy documents and discussing the scope at a later stage. 

 

4. Payment Schedule

The Service Provider will be paid upon receipt of satisfactory deliverables as outlined above in meeting the PUNOs’ quality standards and according to the following schedule:

  1. First payment (30%) upon delivery and acceptance of the inception report.
  2. Second payment (30%) upon delivery and acceptance of the first draft budget analysis and briefs.
  3. Third payment (40%) upon delivery and acceptance of the final analysis and briefs, suitably incorporating all feedback received.

5. Conditions

The contract will be established for 60 working days over a period of three (3) months. The consultancy is open to both local and international consultancy firms and consortium of experts with a clear appointed team leader as the Service Provider(s). In the case of international consultancy firms and consortium of experts, demonstrated involvement of local expertise is expected as part of the Budget Analysis Team.

 

As per broader UN financial and administrative policies, payment is made against approved deliverables. No advance payment is allowed unless in exceptional circumstances against bank guarantee, subject to a maximum of 30 per cent of the total contract value in cases where advance purchases, for example for supplies or travel, may be necessary. The Service Provider(s) selected will be governed by and subject to UNFPA’s General Terms and Conditions for individual consultants.

 

6. Desired competencies, technical background and experience

The development of a Budget Analysis covers interventions spread across a broad range of sectors, government offices, ministries and agencies (OMAs). On average, the entire process can range from 3-6 months, depending on prevailing country conditions, the ease of access to data, and resource availability. The nature of budget analyses requires expert skills and understanding of economics, social development, social policy, gender and budgeting. Members of the Budget Analysis team need to be able to locate, identify, interpret and analyse a broad range of policy, statistical and budget data.  The primary skills, knowledge and experience required range from the complexities of the budget system and ability to explain the contribution of each stakeholder; fieldwork experience; knowledge of country programmes; knowledge of trends in global health and labour economics; water, sanitation and hygiene and gender disparities. PFM knowledge and experience includes a working knowledge of the mechanisms of the country budget system, and importantly, the informal budget mechanisms. It also includes knowledge of sub-national, national, regional and global PFM and basic economic practices and trends.

 

Ideally there would be a one-on-one counterpart arrangement  with a PFM specialist  in  an ongoing relationship with the expenditure control and budget offices at the Ministry of Finance. The inclusion of demonstrated labour/employment, gender, WASH, health, and state planning expertise to the Budget Analysis Team  is a pre-requsite for succesful completition of this assignment with similar counterpart matching.

  • Advanced university degrees in economics, public financial management or related area;
  • Solid knowledge of PFM instruments and proven experience (at least 8 years) with government social sector budget analysis at national and decentralized level;
  • Knowledge of UN programme areas and the Namibian context is a major asset;
  • Must be reliable and able to work with minimum supervision;
  • Experience with collecting and working with complex financial data sets;
  • Advanced data analysis skills, including advanced Excel;
  • Good analytical and writing skills and the ability to present results in simple language, making use of visual aids (maps, graphs, and other tools);

Excellent spoken and written English

 

7. Supervision

The Service Provider(s) will be jointly supervised across the thematic areas under analysis as follows:

  • Health Outcomes and WASH - Social Policy Specialist (UNICEF)
  • SRHR – Health Economics Specialist (UNFPA)
  • Gender responsiveness – Gender Specialist (UNFPA)
  • Employment responsiveness – Employment Specialist, as well as an international expert (ILO)

The Program Officer will coordinate Reporting and progress updates and will provide the necessary support to achieve the objectives of the work, as well as remain aware of any upcoming issues related to the performance and quality of the work.

 

8. Institutional Arrangement

 

The Participating UN Organizations on the Joint Program will:

  • Provide the Consultant with relevant documents,
  • Provide the Consultant with full support in any further analysis of the data where necessary,
  • Facilitate communication with the relevant stakeholders,
  • Give feedback to the draft, final reports and all other deliverables prepared by the Service Provider.

All documents and data provided to the consultant are confidential and cannot be used for any other purposes or shared with a third party without any written approval from the Resident Coordinator’s Office.

 

9. Risks

 

The primary risk is that the production of the different deliverables is delayed and/or of unsatisfactory quality. To mitigate this risk, the Program Officer will work closely with the Service Provider, ensuring that timelines are being closely adhered to and the different products are fit for purpose and of strong quality.

 

10. Application process

 

The Service Provider is expected to provide the following:

  • Cover letter (must indicate availability to assume duty)
  • Curriculum Vitae
  • Brief methodology clearly describing the interpretation of these Terms of Reference and a recommended methodological approach
  • Financial offer in USD expressed as lump sum for the delivery of outputs as per above description. The financial proposal shall include a breakdown of this lump sum amount (consultancy fee per number of anticipated working days, travel and any other possible costs).

Applications should be send to namibia-procurement@unfpa.org with the subject line “Development of a  Budget Analysis” by 17h00 Central Africa Time (CAT) on 30 June 2021.

Applications submitted without this information will not be considered. Please also note that the joint program will cover all travel costs, including DSA, so these costs should not be factored into  the daily rate.

 

Annex: Suggested budget analysis outline

Outline/ Key Analytical focus of the Brief

The Brief could be structured along the following key issues/ sections:

  1. Section 1. Introduction
  • Demographic profile
  • Sector overview
  • Main policies and targets
  • Sector performance- assessment of key development outcome indicators
  • Takeaways
  1. Section 2. Sector Spending Trends
  • Size of spending and key development priorities in the National Budget
  • Spending changes over time (Nominal vs Real)
  • Spending against commitments and targets
  • Spending against other comparable countries (UMICs and or SADC)
  • Takeaways
  1. Section 3. Composition of Government Spending against Sector KPIs and Targets
  • Spending by employment outcomes?
  • Spending by gender responsiveness
  • Spending by health outcomes (including SRHR)
  • Spending by WASH outcomes
  • Spending by Recurrent/ employment and capital spending
  • Takeaways
  1. Section 4. Budget Credibility and Execution
  • Budget credibility (How much of the approved budget is released by MoF in Total/ by Programme)
  • Budget execution (How much of the released amount by programme is actually utilized)
  • Budget Execution by economic classification (employment vs development vs other current expenditures)
  • Takeaways
  1. Section 5. Equity of Spending
  • Spending disparities based on regions/ income / other markers as data allows
  • Causes
  • Takeaways
  1. Section 6. Financing Development
  • Domestic public revenue (budget)
  • External financing/ Official Development Assistance
  • The role of private financing,
  • The size of Household contributions, including through user fees (Out of Pocket Payments)
  • Additional financing options
  • Takeaways
  1. Section 7: Key Messages and Recommendations
  • What are the key messages emerging from the analysis?
  • What are major gaps in Namibia’s past budgets towards achieving developmental objectives?
  • What are the main opportunities to enhance the budgeting process to achieve greater developmental outcomes?
  • What are the key recommendations for UN agencies and national stakeholders? Could be listed in order of priority.